Fifteen focused experimental candidates

These selections are members of Desktop/150. They prioritize a measurable decision, interpretable controls, and plausible mechanisms. No numerical probability of success or global-novelty certification is assigned. Some comparisons have only indirect literature support. No new physical experiments were performed.

The first two permit complete conditional mathematical analyses in Desktop/2. They are chosen for analytical closure, not because a new physical discovery is guaranteed.

01. N0755

Prediction

A physical network could reconstruct missing boundary measurements by enforcing local energy balance.

Primary measurement

Held-out temperature error at deliberately hidden measurement nodes, in K, plus energy-balance residuals.

Comparison

Known thermal network with full observation versus blinded removal of selected temperature channels; compare balance reconstruction with a stated simple baseline.

Controls

Independently calibrated conductances; known heater and sink powers; boundary exchanges; actual steady state; anchor temperature; topology.

Testing plan

First run the exact model checks in Desktop/2. Then use an instrumented low-power thermal network. Hide measurements only from the analysis, not from independent ground truth. Freeze the network before testing withheld nodes. Repeat across independently assembled contacts.

Stop or revise

Unknown losses, wrong conductance, floating components, or residuals larger than calibration uncertainty invalidate the reconstruction assumptions. Successful synthetic reconstruction alone is not physical validation.

Evidence and limits

Energy-balance reconstruction has strong theoretical support under closure and anchoring. Closely related missing-node thermal-network research already exists; novelty of the broad method is weak.

Related primary-source lead: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474034626007056

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


02. N0751

Prediction

A mechanical differentiator could detect rapid chemical changes through the mismatch of two swelling pathways.

Primary measurement

Differential displacement response to concentration steps, ramps, and sinusoids; report static residual and finite-frequency sensitivity separately.

Comparison

Two swelling paths with matched equilibrium gain but different measured response times versus either path alone and a matched-time pair.

Controls

Input delivery time; actual concentration; temperature; equilibrium gain; mechanical lever ratio; drift; hysteresis; swelling-induced geometry changes.

Testing plan

Begin with benign humidity changes in a calibrated chamber and independently measured input. Fit each path separately using pilot data, freeze parameters, and predict the differential output on new waveforms. Use small changes where a linear approximation can be tested.

Stop or revise

If gains do not match, constant inputs leave a false differential signal. If both time constants match, the ideal signal vanishes. Very rapid fluctuations can be filtered out, so do not claim unlimited bandwidth.

Evidence and limits

Published swelling sensors show measurable response times and chamber-induced delays. The differential band-pass construction is a model-backed engineering question, not an established new sensing principle.

Related primary-source lead: https://doi.org/10.1021/acsapm.9b00957

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


03. N1304

Prediction

A thin rubber diaphragm could distinguish an attached water film from equal added solid mass through damping history.

Primary measurement

Logarithmic decrement or fitted damping rate after a standardized small deflection, with resonant frequency reported separately.

Comparison

Rubber diaphragm carrying a thin water film versus equal added solid mass, plus unloaded and immobile-liquid references.

Controls

Added mass distribution; clamping; membrane tension; temperature; evaporation; water spreading; amplitude-dependent damping.

Testing plan

Calibrate displacement from video or an optical sensor. Use repeatable small release amplitudes and record complete decay. Check whether the film actually moves relative to the membrane. Randomize independently prepared loading arrangements.

Stop or revise

Reject the discrimination claim if observed differences disappear after matching mass location, clamp tension, and amplitude. A resonance shift alone demonstrates added mass, not a liquid-specific signal.

Evidence and limits

Fluid loading and membrane dynamics are established. The equal-mass liquid-versus-solid discrimination remains a narrower comparison; returned added-mass theory is indirect support.

Related primary-source lead: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S088997469890175X

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


04. N1337

Prediction

A capillary tube bundle could smooth concentration fluctuations without equally smoothing flow pulses.

Primary measurement

Ratio of concentration-pulse broadening to flow-pulse broadening, using independently measured arrival times.

Comparison

Capillary bundle versus an equal-volume single path; measure concentration and pressure/flow impulse responses independently.

Controls

Tube length, radius distribution, compliance, inlet dose, tracer adsorption, flow regime, total volume, and detector bandwidth.

Testing plan

Use a compatible nonbinding tracer and low-pressure flow. Characterize transit distributions before comparing pulse smoothing. Record pressure and collected volume as well as tracer signal. Do not compare detectors with different uncorrected time response.

Stop or revise

If both signals broaden equally or differences follow adsorption and sensor lag, the proposed selective smoothing is unsupported.

Evidence and limits

Taylor dispersion establishes a mechanism for solute spreading distinct from pressure propagation. It does not by itself validate a particular bundle design or preservation of sharp flow pulses.

Related primary-source lead: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1953.0139

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


05. N1372

Prediction

A porous ceramic tile could reveal thermal-contact defects through where dew first disappears during warming.

Primary measurement

Accuracy of locating a blinded thermal-contact defect from the spatial order of dew disappearance.

Comparison

Known contact gaps beneath a porous tile versus bonded references, with an independent temperature map.

Controls

Initial condensate volume; emissivity; porosity; surface chemistry; heater geometry; airflow; defect thermal mass.

Testing plan

Create benign reversible contact defects without changing the exposed surface. Apply reproducible mild warming and image dew disappearance. Evaluate held-out defect locations rather than tuning image thresholds on the same specimens.

Stop or revise

If dew maps only follow initial water thickness, surface wetting, or emissivity, they do not establish buried-contact detection.

Evidence and limits

Primary experiments connect conductor geometry to condensation detection. That is related background, not a demonstration of this dew-based defect map.

Related primary-source lead: https://doi.org/10.1080/15567265.2023.2285745

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


06. N1344

Prediction

A sand bed could reveal a buried drain through the spatial timing of surface cooling after wetting.

Primary measurement

Blind localization error for a buried drain from post-wetting surface cooling times.

Comparison

Active drain, sealed thermally matched pipe, and no-pipe sand beds at several predefined depths.

Controls

Sand packing; initial moisture; total irrigation; boundary heat input; pipe material; evaporation; external temperature.

Testing plan

Use a transparent or instrumented sand box with an independent water-route measurement. Record temperature and moisture together. Fit a detection rule in pilots, then test new drain positions and separately packed beds.

Stop or revise

If the signature follows pipe conductivity without drainage, the result is buried-object detection rather than evidence for the proposed wetting-path mechanism.

Evidence and limits

Heat-flow experiments and moisture-dependent sand conductivity support a measurable thermal contrast. Detectability at the intended depth must still be established.

Related primary-source lead: https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2009.0095

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


07. N1350

Prediction

A paper-based separation strip could improve band uniformity when its support is allowed to slide freely during wetting.

Primary measurement

Tracer-band centerline variance and width at a fixed migration distance.

Comparison

Paper separation strips with freely sliding versus restrained supports; include matched initial tension.

Controls

Paper batch; solvent; load; evaporation; support contact; initial strain; front speed; paper orientation.

Testing plan

Validate a benign separable tracer first. Image paper deformation and the solvent front, then compare band distortion with blinded support labels. Normalize separately for initial spot width and migration speed.

Stop or revise

If free supports merely change solvent supply or detector geometry, the experiment does not isolate wetting-stress release.

Evidence and limits

Paper swelling and cockling are established and directly measurable. The retrieved grid-wetting paper was not a direct paper-constraint study; use the relevant paper-deformation source below.

Related primary-source lead: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9906801/

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


08. N1314

Prediction

A dissolving sugar crystal could reveal local stagnant zones through the orientation of surviving ridges.

Primary measurement

Agreement between residual ridge orientation and independently measured low-flow regions around a dissolving sugar specimen.

Comparison

Known external flow geometries versus quiescent water and rotated specimens.

Controls

Crystal orientation; initial shape; solution concentration; temperature; density-driven self-convection; illumination heating.

Testing plan

Use controlled sugar specimens and independent flow tracers. Record shape evolution and the flow field simultaneously. Test a prediction rule on new orientations before claiming stagnant-zone inference.

Stop or revise

If ridges follow crystal axes or self-generated convection rather than the imposed flow, the intended inference fails.

Evidence and limits

Primary dissolution experiments show strong feedback between sugar shape and naturally generated flow. This also supplies a major alternative explanation that must be measured.

Related primary-source lead: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7519309/

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


09. N1388

Prediction

A porous wick could distinguish a blocked outlet from an empty inlet through opposite moisture-front recoil.

Primary measurement

Classification error between inlet starvation and outlet blockage from a preregistered moisture-front recovery feature.

Comparison

Normally supplied wick, emptied inlet, and blocked outlet with matched initial wetness; include partial faults.

Controls

Evaporation; reservoir height; pore structure; tracer effects; initial saturation; tubing compliance; imposed probe pulse.

Testing plan

Define exactly which front is measured and when the fault occurs. Apply a small calibrated probe, image wetness, and measure total water mass. Validate the classifier on separately prepared wicks and randomized fault labels.

Stop or revise

Opposite recoil is not guaranteed by a generic wick. Reject it if fronts have the same sign under well-matched conditions or classification relies on a trivial view of the reservoir.

Evidence and limits

Capillary-pump studies support sensitivity to liquid-supply failure, but they do not demonstrate this exact fault classifier in a simple paper wick.

Related primary-source lead: https://academic.oup.com/ijlct/article/11/2/184/2198372

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


10. N1075

Prediction

A porous cooling wick could warn of imminent failure through increasing spatial intermittency of evaporation.

Primary measurement

Lead time and false-alarm rate of a registered spatial-intermittency metric before a predefined dry-out failure.

Comparison

Wick cooling under gradually increasing load versus stable non-failing operation; add partial supply blockage.

Controls

Imaging resolution; lighting; initial saturation; heat input; airflow; water purity; marker influence; data-processing thresholds.

Testing plan

Choose failure independently from the proposed warning metric, such as a specified thermal resistance increase. Train thresholds only on pilot runs and test on new wick preparations. Preserve negative and failed-warning runs.

Stop or revise

No useful warning exists if the metric changes only after failure, requires retrospective threshold tuning, or has excessive false alarms.

Evidence and limits

Evaporator studies report spatial dry-out and transient temperature changes. Early-warning specificity and lead time remain unproved.

Related primary-source lead: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12217-024-10122-y

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


11. N1330

Prediction

A thin clay film could redistribute fine particles toward developing cracks before they become optically visible.

Primary measurement

Particle migration toward independently located developing cracks before a fixed optical crack-detection threshold.

Comparison

Drying clay film with mobile inert tracer particles versus non-drying, noncracking, and immobilized-tracer references.

Controls

Film thickness; substrate restraint; evaporation; particle adhesion; imaging resolution; initial concentration; bulk shrinkage.

Testing plan

Register optical resolution in advance and track particle motion relative to the moving solid, not the camera. Independently measure local strain. Distinguish migration from apparent movement caused by whole-film deformation.

Stop or revise

If particle motion follows the matrix or starts only after crack opening at the stated resolution, it is not the proposed precursor.

Evidence and limits

Primary drying-colloid work links pore flow, tensile stress, and crack formation. That does not directly show fines migrating toward unseen cracks.

Related primary-source lead: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11389785

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


12. N1345

Prediction

A polymer film could resist edge tearing by generating a local compressive wrinkle ahead of the crack.

Primary measurement

Tear propagation work and crack speed at matched remote loading, with the pre-tip compressive strain field measured.

Comparison

Film geometry permitting a local wrinkle versus a constrained nonwrinkling reference, keeping thickness and polymer identical.

Controls

Remote load; stored elastic energy; film thickness; rate; temperature; mounting; wrinkle amplitude; crack-tip plasticity.

Testing plan

Begin with a macroscopically observable compatible film rather than assuming nanofilm results transfer. Use calibrated force-displacement and image-based strain. Record whether the wrinkle leads or follows crack advance.

Stop or revise

Wrinkles can be a consequence of fracture. Reject a protective mechanism if they form only afterward or if load matching removes the benefit.

Evidence and limits

Primary ultrathin-film experiments use wrinkles to visualize crack-tip stress. They do not establish that making a wrinkle improves toughness.

Related primary-source lead: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9954313/

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


13. N1324

Prediction

A porous chalk slab could expose old wetting paths through faster uptake of a later harmless tracer.

Primary measurement

Prediction accuracy for later tracer uptake paths from a previously imposed water-only wetting route.

Comparison

Localized first wetting versus uniform first wetting and previously unwetted chalk; control final drying duration.

Controls

Chalk composition; pore structure; dissolution; residual solute; contact angle; moisture; tracer binding; specimen orientation.

Testing plan

Use water-only conditioning so the first pass leaves no dye. Quantify mass change and moisture before the later tracer. Test independently prepared slabs and compare against pore geometry known before conditioning.

Stop or revise

If the path is explained by residual tracer, remaining water, or a pre-existing crack, it is not evidence for the proposed additional structural memory.

Evidence and limits

Chalk and porous-media studies show path-dependent transport. Whether localized prior wetting predicts a later path after the selected reset remains an open comparative question.

Related primary-source lead: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018254

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


14. N1342

Prediction

A thin foam sheet could report where it was previously bent through local differences in rewetting speed.

Primary measurement

Spatial classification accuracy for previously bent foam regions from normalized later uptake time.

Comparison

Locally bent foam versus unbent foam and deliberately microcracked foam, all with recovered overall thickness.

Controls

Open versus closed cells; surface finish; density; residual deformation; microcracks; hydrophobicity; water temperature.

Testing plan

First verify that the chosen foam has measurable repeatable uptake. Blind the loading locations and compare uptake maps with independent pore-damage images. Separate persistent damage from reversible mechanical memory.

Stop or revise

If only cracked foam gives a signal, report damage detection rather than a reversible bend-memory mechanism.

Evidence and limits

Fatigue experiments document persistent changes in foam cells despite partial macroscopic recovery. This supports a possible signal while threatening the claimed reversible interpretation.

Related primary-source lead: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014294182300274X

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


15. N1410

Prediction

A porous stone analogue could record the order of two benign solutes through where each later crystallizes.

Primary measurement

Blind identification of solute arrival order from final spatial deposits after matched total doses.

Comparison

Two compatible benign solutes delivered A-then-B versus B-then-A, plus a premixed control.

Controls

Chemical reaction; adsorption; total dose; front speed; drying; temperature; pore geometry; selective detection of each solute.

Testing plan

Validate that the solutes remain chemically compatible and independently detectable. Image transport during loading, then identify final deposits without access to sequence labels. Test fresh specimens and reverse sample orientation.

Stop or revise

If order is read only from an unreleased initial residue or chemical reaction, state that mechanism explicitly. Equal final patterns contradict useful sequence recording.

Evidence and limits

Primary porous-material work reports moving crystallization fronts and layered salt deposits. Exact equal-dose sequence decoding remains unverified.

Related primary-source lead: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022024897003412

Unverified; a familiar mechanism or existing method is not a new discovery.

Replication gate

Calibrate measurement uncertainty first. Define a minimum meaningful effect in the primary outcome's units, then estimate variability across independently prepared specimens or assemblies. Use that variance for a design-specific confirmatory sample calculation. Images and repeated readings from one specimen are technical repeats, not independent replications. Randomize run order and blind labels where practical. Freeze exclusions and analysis before confirmation.

A narrow interval excluding the chosen meaningful effect can count against the bounded claim; a wide interval is inconclusive. Report null and adverse results. The outline requires material and apparatus compatibility checks and is not a complete laboratory protocol.


